Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview

Dukascopy

Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview

World indexes:
DJIA 0.46%
S&P500 0.31%
NASDAQ -0.12%
CAC40 0.01%
DAX -0.14%
NIKKEI -1.45%
Movers & Shakers:
USD/SEK +2.16%
USD/NOK +1.69%
GBP/CHF +1.34%
USD/CHF +1.33%
USD/CAD +1.18%
EUR/NOK +0.48%
AUD/NZD +0.32%
EUR/CHF +0.13%
GBP/JPY +0.07%
EUR/CAD -0.04%
EUR/AUD -0.25%
AUD/JPY -0.89%
AUD/USD -0.94%
CAD/JPY -1.10%
EUR/JPY -1.13%
EUR/USD -1.18%
EUR/GBP -1.21%
CHF/JPY -1.26%
NZD/USD -1.26%
Important levels:
Support Resistance
EUR/USD
1.4781 1.5000
1.4703 1.5141
1.4562 1.5219
GBP/USD
1.6233 1.6377
1.6170 1.6458
1.6089 1.6521
USD/CHF
1.0095 1.0245
1.0000 1.0299
0.9946 1.0394
USD/JPY
91.771 92.481
91.323 92.743
91.061 93.191


SWFX Sentiment Index
Dukascopy analytic desk report
Published: 27 October 2009 at 15.01 GMT
Previous session overview

The U.S. dollar turned higher Tuesday, reversing an earlier loss against major currencies, after a measure of U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, sending stock indexes lower and supporting the greenback.

The euro sank to an intraday low of USD1.4787, from USD1.4857 just ahead of the data, which reported U.S. consumers are pinched over continued worry about the labor market, which is lagging other measures of economic recovery.

The Conference Board reported its consumer confidence index, which had been expected to improve, actually fell to 47.7 in October, from a revised 53.4 in September. The index had been expected to edge up to 53.2.

The Dollar Index, a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, was at 76.234 from 76.011 late Monday.

The euro and with it the appetite for riskier assets had gained briefly on the release of better-than-expected house price data earlier Tuesday, but it soon gave back those gains as investors sold off the common currency ahead of the consumer data.

The dollar climbed during overnight trade as high as JPY92.33, the highest since Sept. 21, but the greenback later trimmed some of its gains due to selling by Japanese exporters and profit-taking by some short-term players, analysts said.

Market expectation

EURUSD founds some good demand interest around USD1.4790 as the pair recovered off lows at USD1.4788 with traders suggesting some Asian CB interest kicked in, along with some quick profit-taking by shorts as the USD1.4770 technical support area provided an easy excuse to take money off the table. Broken support around USD1.4825/30 area now seen as a nearby sell zone now.

Pound saw lows around USD1.6315/10 with rate edging back, moving above USD1.6340 at writing. Offers seen placed toward USD1.6350, with interest said to extend toward USD1.6360.

EURJPY recovery in stocks and risk trades sees the cross paring earlier losses, though as yet the bounce is limited to 30-points or so. Traders reporting offers building in the JPY136.80 area, in line with the earlier breakdown point, more noted into JPY137.00.

With the gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rate a significant mover of currencies, market participants are focused on this week's U.S. government debt auctions totaling USD123 billion in value, including a sale of USD44 billion two-year notes Tuesday.

Most important events of the day
Oct 27 Count. Event For Unit Imp. Act. Cons. Prev.
00:00 IS  IS Gallup Expectations Oct index 47.9 33.5
07:00 CH  CH UBS Consumption Indicator Sep index 0.632 0.623
07:30 US  US Treasury Secretary Geithner participates in "A Conversation with the U.S. Treasury Secretary" at annual meeting of Securities and Financial Markets Association
07:50 FR  FR Consumer Confidence Oct index -35 -35 -36
08:00 EU  EU ECB Executive Board member Stark to speak at a conference on Social Market Economy in Petersberg
08:30 SE  SE PPI Sep % m/m -0.9 -0.5 -0.9
08:30 SE  SE PPI Sep % y/y -1.6 -1.5 -0.1
08:30 IT  IT ISAE Consumer Confidence Oct index 111.7 113.7 113.6
08:30 NL  NL Producer Confidence Oct index s.a -9 -9.8
09:00 NO  NO Norges Bank survey of bank lending 2009 Q3
09:00 EU  EU M3 (sa) Sep % y/y 1.8 2.2 2.6
09:00 EU  EU M3 3 month (sa) Sep % y/y 2.5 2.5 2.5
11:00 GB  GB CBI Distributive Trades Oct Index 8 3
12:00 US  US SEC Chair Schapiro to speak at annual meeting of The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)
13:00 US  US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Aug % y/y -11.32 -11.9 -13.26
14:00 US  US Consumer confidence Oct index 47.7 53.5 53.4
14:00 CA  CA BoC Governor Carney, Senior Deputy Governor Jenkins and FinMin Flaherty testify before House of Commons Finance Committee on Monetary Policy Report
14:00 SE  SE Riksbank Deputy Governor Nyberg to give speech on "Towards a new European Supervisory Structure"
23:50 JP  JP Large Retailers Sales Sep % y/y -5.9 -6.8
23:50 JP  JP Retail sales Sep %y/y -1.6 -1.8


Disclaimer: the data made available by Dukascopy (Suisse) SAis for informational purposes only. Publication of this data by Dukascopy (Suisse) SA does not constitute provision of investment advice and Dukascopy (Suisse) SA assumes no responsibility with regard toany information, forecast or recommendation herein contained and assumes no responsibility with regard toany losses resulting from any activities conducted the basis of this data, including any investment decisions.

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